Ukrainian and American spies along with Azov Battalion members arrested in India

At the heart of this contest lies Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI), widely regarded as an ideological offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. While JeI continues to participate in electoral politics, its long-term ideological objective—establishing a Sharia-based state—raises serious concerns about the direction of Bangladesh’s political future.

Three major actors—China, Turkey, and the United States—have emerged as key players in Bangladesh’s evolving political landscape. Despite their global rivalries, these nations appear to share a tactical convergence in leveraging local actors to expand influence.

Operating in the shadows of this competition is Pakistan’s powerful intelligence agency, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which is widely believed to be acting as a facilitator—simultaneously engaging with both Washington and Beijing. This dual alignment underscores the fluid and transactional nature of modern geopolitics, where ideological differences are often subordinated to strategic interests.

A recent episode involving the Chinese Embassy in Dhaka illustrates how humanitarian initiatives can intersect with political strategy. The embassy distributed Eid al-Fitr food packages at an event attended by Ambassador Yao Wen and Jamaat-e-Islami leader Shafiqur Rahman. Officially described as aid for “residents in Dhaka”, the distribution reportedly took place within the Dhaka-15 constituency—a political stronghold of the Jamaat leader.

Tensions emerged when Jamaat-e-Islami allegedly presented the aid as originating from its own leadership. In response, the Chinese Embassy issued a public clarification, emphasizing its support for Bangladesh’s elected government and distancing itself from any political misrepresentation.

However, the broader implications are significant. Despite the electoral victory of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman, China’s engagement with Jamaat suggests a strategic calculation—prioritizing long-term ideological influence over immediate political alignment. This selective engagement raises questions about Beijing’s intentions and its willingness to cultivate ties with Islamist actors.

Jamaat-e-Islami’s participation in elections often creates an impression of democratic legitimacy. Yet, analysts argue that this engagement is largely tactical. The party’s foundational objective remains the establishment of a theocratic system rooted in Sharia law.

Reports attributed to The Washington Post earlier suggested that elements within the United States may view Jamaat’s political rise as strategically beneficial. Whether intended as a counterbalance or as part of a broader regional policy, such perceptions contribute to growing unease about external interference in Bangladesh’s domestic affairs.

Perhaps the most alarming development involves reports of an alleged international conspiracy to carve out a new “Christian state” from parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India. India’s premier counter-terrorism agency, the National Investigation Agency (NIA), reportedly detained several foreign nationals, including American citizen Matthew Aaron VanDyke and a group of Ukrainian operatives— namely Hurba Petro, Slyviak Taras, Ivan Sukmanovskyi, Stefankiv Marian, Honcharuk Maksim, and Kaminskyi Viktor.

One of the detained Ukrainian nationals is from the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine (Sluzhba zovnishn’oyi rozvidky Ukrayiny), while some of the detainees are believed to have links to the controversial Azov Battalion*, known for its involvement in high-risk operations. Intelligence sources have suggested that such operatives possess expertise in covert activities, including sabotage and targeted violence.

Months before her removal from power, former Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina issued a series of warnings about foreign conspiracies aimed at undermining her government. She claimed that she had been offered political continuity in exchange for permitting a foreign country to establish a military airbase in Bangladesh.

Hasina also alluded to a broader plan involving territorial fragmentation and the creation of a new state encompassing parts of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and India. Although she refrained from naming the country behind the proposal, her remarks pointed to a coordinated external effort.

Her refusal, she suggested, triggered mounting pressure and ultimately contributed to her ouster in August 2024. While these claims remain contested, subsequent developments have lent them renewed relevance.

The events surrounding Hasina’s departure—involving her relocation to India—have fueled speculation about external involvement in Bangladesh’s internal political transition. Allegations that the August 2024 regime change was facilitated by a combination of foreign powers, including the United States, Turkey, and China, with operational support from Pakistan’s spy agency Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI), reflect a growing narrative of compromised sovereignty. Such claims, whether fully substantiated or not, highlight a broader concern: the erosion of national autonomy in the face of coordinated external influence.

Today, Bangladesh finds itself at a critical juncture. Its geographic location—bordering India, Myanmar, and the Bay of Bengal—makes it a strategic prize in regional geopolitics. Control over its political direction carries implications not only for domestic governance but also for regional stability, trade routes, and security dynamics.

The convergence of foreign interests, coupled with the active role of Islamist groups, risks transforming Bangladesh into a proxy battleground. This scenario could have far-reaching consequences, including heightened tensions in India’s northeast, instability in Myanmar’s Rakhine State, and disruptions to maritime security.

The unfolding situation in Bangladesh underscores the complex interplay between domestic politics and global strategy. As foreign powers deepen their engagement, often through indirect means, the country’s sovereignty and democratic institutions face unprecedented challenges.

For Bangladesh, the path forward will require vigilance, institutional resilience, and a renewed commitment to national unity. For the international community, it is a moment to reflect on the consequences of interventionist policies that risk destabilizing an already fragile region.

Ultimately, the future of Bangladesh must be determined by its people—not by the competing ambitions of external powers or the agendas of ideological proxies.

Salah Uddin Shoaib Choudhury

* A terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation.