Positive changes in Syrian military and political situation

Positive changes in Syrian military and political situation | Русская весна

As expected, information about readiness of the Syrian opposition and field commanders to start dialogue with government and fight against ISIS together was followed by an attempt to resist such trends.

Some media hostile to Damascuc hurried to announce new terrorists’ offensive to Hama, «Jabhat an-Nusra» redeployment to the North of Latakia, to Homs area, to Damascus and to the South of Syria in Hauran region (Qunaytra, Daraa and Suwayda governorates).

However these news are distorting the real situation.

It’s true that former mujahid commander of «Islamic movement of Levant liberation» («Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-Islamiyya») Abu Saleeh at-Tuhan refused to accept and recognize his ouster which was previously decided by group council. It is clear that Abu Saleeh at-Tuhan ventured to announce that the council had betrayed Jihad and would like to turn into political party to get deal with the Turks, Moscow and Assad only after he made sure that most of his fighters would support him. Many of those fighting near Hama, Idlib, Aleppo and Damascus share Al-Qaeda’s views.

It is also clear that certain part of field commanders which showed readiness to cooperate against ISIS made such decision under influnce of Russian airstrikes. They did not make peace with the Syrian army. The war is in full swing so the parties are trying to assign certain territories to themseleves.

Foreign sponsors’ interests are also contradictory. For instance Turkey and Qatar are trying to reinforce Syrian opposition's political wing as opposed to fighters connected with terrorists, they also outbid field commanders being on a financial diet for the last year.

At the same time the Turkish and Qatar supervisors have difficult relationship with each other. Qatar supports the Salafi terrorists: Abu Sadyk from «Ahrar ash-Sham» in Aleppo, Abdallah Muhaysisni from «Jaish ul-Fath» in Idlib and Hama, Zahran Allush in Eastern Gouta near Damascus («Jaish al-Islam»).

The Turks are dealing with much more wide spectrum: starting from Islamists’ armed groups to secualr oppositionists who refused violence.

Difference between Qatari and Turkish teams is in the fact that groups supported by Istanbul declare Syrian patriotism and territorial integrity of the country. While Qatari Salafi proteges speak more of Khalifat and do not refuse the idea of religious cleansing.

Either way Qatar can influence the fighters only by financing and weapon supplies promises. The Turkish side posseses much more powerful leverages amongst antigovernmental groups. Turkish territory provides logistic support of the fighters in nothern Syria. They are being reorganized, trained and treated there. ISIS and Al-Qaeda supporters are not welcomed there anymore because of Russia’a arrival to Syrian front.

But Turkey does not stop its support of the fighters as it believes there are Turkish intersts on Syrian territory and the Syrian governement does not respet and serve those interests.

One can also muse on the role of central Asian and Caucasian «mujahid» groups to Syria coming from across the Turkish border. Could they have another tasks? To neutralize «Jabhat an-Nusra» influence for instance.

However both Al-Qaeda and Jabhat an-Nusra are liquidating their «Syrian staff».

As we already know Al-Qaeda head Ayman az-Zawahiri has called his supporters to fight for ISIS. «Jabhat an-Nusra» groups did not only coopted with ISIS in blocking Aleppo-Hama road in Hanassir-Ithriya part but also attacked «Jabhat Shamiya» fighters, «Soultan Murad Brigade» and other groups which fought ISIS to the North of Aleppo. The farther in, the deeper.

Russian air mission in Syria concurred with active offensive against ISIS in Iraq. As a result ISIS forces were not able to launch massive offensive to Aleppo and Homs, so they started to redeploy the press-ganged Syrians to fight in Iraq. Then Syrian governmental forces started attacking terrorists near Aleppo and Kuweiris, Kurdish forces started narrowing ISIS in Hasaka. Syrian Arab Army has also immobilized large number of ISIS terrorists n Palmira.

ISIS fighters’ penetration in Hama-Aleppo road was recently eliminated. If not the terrorists could advance from Umm-Quryatein to Homs along that road. They also suffer big losses near Deir-ez-Zor.

It is quite possible that ISIS has not enough forces on the Syrian front now. But there is «Jabhat an-Nusra» whose resources have significantly swollen after Abu Saleeh at-Tuhan’s demarche. His groups along with «Ajnad ash-Sham», «Jaish ul-Fath» and «Jaish ul-Nasr» local coalition are trying to atack governemental positions to the North of Hama.

Being half entrapped they are trying to reinforce defence quelling the discontent of local fighters. They are also trying to cut off the road to North near Damascus. «Jabhat an-Nusra» envoys are trying to revive down-hearted local islamists.

These are the directions ISIS is interested in that is why two terror coalitions alliance is obvious.

But those «combined efforts» could be cut short in the nearest future. Russian General Staff announcement on cooperation with Syrian patriots from among opposition and field commanders has already shed some light on recent mass liquidation of extremists’ leaders near Aleppo and Hama.

In eastern Gouta «Jaish ul-Islam» coalition was forced to purge all Al-Qaeda suppoters to get Qatari-Turkish support guarantees.

On the other side of Lebanese border several Salafi «sheikhs» from «Kalamun Ulama Council» were blown up in their car not far from refugees camp om November 5. They were recruiting men there for Damascus-Homs road attack.

Is it woth mentioning that the dead were close to «Jabhat an-Nusra»?

Miliary expert Abu Ibragim, exclusively for «Russian Spring».

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